In the past, we studied three trump hands and how pickers fare against passers. This post is an effort to look at a wider variety of hands and understand whether we should generally pick on the type of hand in question. The table is at the bottom of the article. The hands are limited to JD Partner, blitzes and cracks, and no DOB. This is by far the most popular type of Sheepshead played on the site.
Picking position is broken out to ender vs non-ender. When there is more data, it would be interesting to look at certain hands by a more granular picking position value, but this suffices for now. The hands are also broken out by the total number of trump and the most powerful card.
As in the three trump hands, it is important to consider the selection bias in these figures. First, not every non-ender, three to a jack of clubs hand is created equal. The ones picked on probably tend to have a fail situation that is more favorable. Also, I suspect better players tend to pick more on lighter hands. That is something that needs to be proven out as time passses and more data are available.
An interesting example is the three to the queen of diamonds hand that is not an ender. These hands are a loss on average if you pick and a loss if you pass, but picking is better than passing. A player dealt this situation gets a chance to pick about 70% of the time, but people on the site are only picking about 15% of opportunities. This is a hand that looks like a picking hand in most cases based on the data, but these are passed on. Non-ender, four to the jack of hearts hands are a similar situation.
There is a social element to all of this. Players feel responsible for delivering a win to the partner when they pick, so it’s hard to pick on a hand where one expects to lose on average. If they pick, the partner is also expected to lose, but if they pass, someone else can pick who might expect a positive result. I suspect some players might prefer to see someone else pick and win than risk picking themselves and losing for them and the partner.
| High Card | Trump Count | Pick Position | Total Hands | Avg Points No Pick Chance | Avg Points Pick | Avg Points Pass | % Chance To Pick | % Pick When Given Chance | % Pass When Given Chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Queen Clubs | 1 | ender | 6,505 | -0.9 | 1.1 | 17.9% | 63.0% | 37.0% | |
| Queen Clubs | 1 | not ender | 25,893 | -0.8 | -0.1 | -0.8 | 65.0% | 1.3% | 98.7% |
| Queen Clubs | 2 | ender | 28,014 | -0.7 | 2.1 | 28.7% | 81.6% | 18.4% | |
| Queen Clubs | 2 | not ender | 111,817 | -0.7 | 1.3 | -0.6 | 71.6% | 22.2% | 77.8% |
| Queen Clubs | 3 | ender | 41,252 | -0.2 | 3.5 | 41.3% | 95.4% | 4.6% | |
| Queen Clubs | 3 | not ender | 163,916 | -0.2 | 2.2 | -0.4 | 77.2% | 72.9% | 27.1% |
| Queen Clubs | 4 | ender | 25,633 | 0.8 | 5.4 | 54.6% | 99.4% | 0.6% | |
| Queen Clubs | 4 | not ender | 102,696 | 0.8 | 3.9 | -0.1 | 83.0% | 98.4% | 1.6% |
| Queen Clubs | 5 | ender | 6,740 | 2.3 | 7.2 | 66.7% | 99.9% | 0.2% | |
| Queen Clubs | 5 | not ender | 27,177 | 2.3 | 6.1 | 0.5 | 87.7% | 99.8% | 0.3% |
| Queen Clubs | 6 | ender | 607 | 4.6 | 8.8 | 79.2% | 99.6% | 0.4% | |
| Queen Clubs | 6 | not ender | 2,405 | 4.3 | 8.2 | 0.6 | 91.4% | 99.7% | 0.3% |
| Queen Spades | 1 | ender | 6,489 | -1.3 | 0.8 | 15.0% | 57.4% | 42.6% | |
| Queen Spades | 1 | not ender | 26,149 | -1.1 | -0.6 | -1.2 | 63.8% | 0.2% | 99.8% |
| Queen Spades | 2 | ender | 25,799 | -0.9 | 1.6 | 25.3% | 75.8% | 24.2% | |
| Queen Spades | 2 | not ender | 102,698 | -0.9 | 0.4 | -0.8 | 69.1% | 8.2% | 91.8% |
| Queen Spades | 3 | ender | 34,175 | -0.5 | 2.5 | 35.2% | 92.1% | 7.9% | |
| Queen Spades | 3 | not ender | 136,329 | -0.4 | 1.1 | -0.5 | 74.6% | 56.8% | 43.2% |
| Queen Spades | 4 | ender | 19,355 | 0.2 | 3.5 | 46.3% | 98.8% | 1.2% | |
| Queen Spades | 4 | not ender | 76,627 | 0.2 | 2.2 | -0.1 | 79.5% | 96.8% | 3.2% |
| Queen Spades | 5 | ender | 4,637 | 1.2 | 4.7 | 56.4% | 99.8% | 0.2% | |
| Queen Spades | 5 | not ender | 18,259 | 1.1 | 3.6 | 0.2 | 84.1% | 99.6% | 0.4% |
| Queen Spades | 6 | ender | 343 | 2.7 | 5.2 | 68.5% | 100.0% | 0.0% | |
| Queen Spades | 6 | not ender | 1,374 | 2.1 | 4.8 | 0 | 88.3% | 99.8% | 0.2% |
| Queen Hearts | 1 | ender | 6,322 | -1.4 | 0.6 | 13.5% | 55.7% | 44.3% | |
| Queen Hearts | 1 | not ender | 26,194 | -1.3 | -2.1 | -1.4 | 62.2% | 0.2% | 99.8% |
| Queen Hearts | 2 | ender | 23,352 | -1.4 | 1.4 | 21.2% | 69.1% | 30.9% | |
| Queen Hearts | 2 | not ender | 93,290 | -1.3 | -0.7 | -1.2 | 67.1% | 3.3% | 96.7% |
| Queen Hearts | 3 | ender | 28,146 | -0.8 | 2.4 | 29.6% | 87.8% | 12.2% | |
| Queen Hearts | 3 | not ender | 111,435 | -0.8 | 0.5 | -0.7 | 71.8% | 34.6% | 65.4% |
| Queen Hearts | 4 | ender | 13,941 | -0.3 | 3.5 | 38.9% | 97.9% | 2.1% | |
| Queen Hearts | 4 | not ender | 56,029 | -0.2 | 1.7 | -0.3 | 76.3% | 93.1% | 6.9% |
| Queen Hearts | 5 | ender | 2,820 | 1 | 5 | 47.9% | 99.6% | 0.4% | |
| Queen Hearts | 5 | not ender | 11,430 | 0.8 | 3.4 | 0.1 | 80.0% | 99.0% | 1.0% |
| Queen Hearts | 6 | ender | 215 | 3 | 5.5 | 57.2% | 100.0% | 0.0% | |
| Queen Hearts | 6 | not ender | 791 | 2.7 | 4.8 | 0.7 | 82.3% | 99.5% | 0.5% |
| Queen Diamonds | 1 | ender | 6,617 | -1.4 | 0.2 | 13.5% | 52.4% | 47.6% | |
| Queen Diamonds | 1 | not ender | 25,892 | -1.3 | -2.9 | -1.4 | 61.7% | 0.2% | 99.8% |
| Queen Diamonds | 2 | ender | 20,901 | -1.4 | 1 | 19.3% | 66.6% | 33.4% | |
| Queen Diamonds | 2 | not ender | 84,157 | -1.3 | -1.2 | -1.3 | 65.8% | 0.5% | 99.5% |
| Queen Diamonds | 3 | ender | 22,323 | -1.1 | 1.7 | 26.5% | 83.6% | 16.4% | |
| Queen Diamonds | 3 | not ender | 89,300 | -1 | -0.2 | -0.9 | 70.2% | 15.3% | 84.7% |
| Queen Diamonds | 4 | ender | 9,751 | -0.5 | 2.4 | 34.6% | 96.7% | 3.3% | |
| Queen Diamonds | 4 | not ender | 39,059 | -0.4 | 0.8 | -0.4 | 74.1% | 87.1% | 12.9% |
| Queen Diamonds | 5 | ender | 1,743 | 0 | 3.2 | 41.4% | 99.3% | 0.7% | |
| Queen Diamonds | 5 | not ender | 6,794 | 0.2 | 1.9 | 0.1 | 78.2% | 98.1% | 1.9% |
| Queen Diamonds | 6 | ender | 99 | 1.8 | 3.5 | 50.5% | 100.0% | 0.0% | |
| Queen Diamonds | 6 | not ender | 435 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 78.4% | 100.0% | 0.0% | |
| Jack Clubs | 1 | ender | 6,446 | -1.5 | 0.8 | 9.3% | 50.8% | 49.2% | |
| Jack Clubs | 1 | not ender | 26,059 | -1.4 | -1.9 | -1.6 | 59.0% | 0.2% | 99.8% |
| Jack Clubs | 2 | ender | 18,539 | -1.6 | 1 | 14.6% | 61.1% | 38.9% | |
| Jack Clubs | 2 | not ender | 75,001 | -1.4 | -2.5 | -1.5 | 63.1% | 0.3% | 99.7% |
| Jack Clubs | 3 | ender | 17,305 | -1.3 | 1.6 | 21.4% | 74.4% | 25.6% | |
| Jack Clubs | 3 | not ender | 69,704 | -1.2 | -0.6 | -1.2 | 67.4% | 3.2% | 96.8% |
| Jack Clubs | 4 | ender | 6,434 | -0.7 | 2.4 | 27.4% | 90.2% | 9.8% | |
| Jack Clubs | 4 | not ender | 26,229 | -0.6 | 0.4 | -0.6 | 70.8% | 46.7% | 53.3% |
| Jack Clubs | 5 | ender | 953 | 0 | 3.1 | 35.3% | 97.0% | 3.0% | |
| Jack Clubs | 5 | not ender | 3,804 | -0.1 | 1.4 | -0.1 | 73.6% | 92.9% | 7.1% |
| Jack Clubs | 6 | ender | 49 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 34.7% | 100.0% | 0.0% | |
| Jack Clubs | 6 | not ender | 158 | 0.7 | 1.3 | -1 | 79.1% | 99.2% | 0.8% |
| Jack Spades | 1 | ender | 6,429 | -1.6 | 0.4 | 9.7% | 49.0% | 51.0% | |
| Jack Spades | 1 | not ender | 26,080 | -1.4 | -5.1 | -1.6 | 58.6% | 0.2% | 99.8% |
| Jack Spades | 2 | ender | 16,359 | -1.6 | 1 | 14.0% | 57.9% | 42.1% | |
| Jack Spades | 2 | not ender | 65,285 | -1.4 | -1.8 | -1.5 | 62.5% | 0.2% | 99.8% |
| Jack Spades | 3 | ender | 13,164 | -1.4 | 1.6 | 19.5% | 69.4% | 30.6% | |
| Jack Spades | 3 | not ender | 52,076 | -1.2 | -0.8 | -1.2 | 66.4% | 1.7% | 98.3% |
| Jack Spades | 4 | ender | 4,078 | -0.8 | 2.2 | 26.1% | 87.7% | 12.3% | |
| Jack Spades | 4 | not ender | 16,322 | -0.7 | 0 | -0.8 | 70.1% | 33.4% | 66.6% |
| Jack Spades | 5 | ender | 510 | -0.3 | 3 | 36.9% | 97.9% | 2.1% | |
| Jack Spades | 5 | not ender | 1,919 | -0.1 | 1.2 | -0.4 | 71.5% | 87.8% | 12.2% |
| Jack Spades | 6 | ender | 16 | -0.5 | 3.2 | 31.3% | 100.0% | 0.0% | |
| Jack Spades | 6 | not ender | 61 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 0 | 77.0% | 97.9% | 2.1% |
| Jack Hearts | 1 | ender | 6,448 | -1.6 | 0.5 | 8.5% | 50.1% | 49.9% | |
| Jack Hearts | 1 | not ender | 25,819 | -1.4 | -2.6 | -1.6 | 58.2% | 0.2% | 99.8% |
| Jack Hearts | 2 | ender | 13,803 | -1.6 | 0.9 | 13.7% | 56.9% | 43.1% | |
| Jack Hearts | 2 | not ender | 56,051 | -1.5 | -3.2 | -1.5 | 62.0% | 0.2% | 99.8% |
| Jack Hearts | 3 | ender | 9,122 | -1.4 | 1.5 | 18.5% | 65.4% | 34.6% | |
| Jack Hearts | 3 | not ender | 37,055 | -1.3 | -0.9 | -1.3 | 65.2% | 0.9% | 99.1% |
| Jack Hearts | 4 | ender | 2,344 | -1 | 2.3 | 23.5% | 82.8% | 17.2% | |
| Jack Hearts | 4 | not ender | 9,342 | -0.8 | -0.1 | -0.8 | 68.8% | 20.0% | 80.0% |
| Jack Hearts | 5 | ender | 188 | -0.1 | 3.2 | 35.1% | 93.9% | 6.1% | |
| Jack Hearts | 5 | not ender | 852 | -0.4 | 1.3 | -0.5 | 70.8% | 81.8% | 18.2% |
| Jack Hearts | 6 | ender | 6 | -7.3 | 4.7 | 50.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | |
| Jack Hearts | 6 | not ender | 21 | 0.5 | 1.8 | -2 | 81.0% | 94.1% | 5.9% |
| Ace Diamonds | 1 | ender | 6,417 | -1.6 | 0.4 | 8.5% | 49.8% | 50.2% | |
| Ace Diamonds | 1 | not ender | 26,393 | -1.4 | -3 | -1.6 | 57.1% | 0.2% | 99.8% |
| Ace Diamonds | 2 | ender | 11,665 | -1.6 | 1.1 | 11.8% | 57.5% | 42.5% | |
| Ace Diamonds | 2 | not ender | 46,515 | -1.4 | -2.3 | -1.6 | 61.4% | 0.2% | 99.8% |
| Ace Diamonds | 3 | ender | 6,262 | -1.5 | 1.5 | 17.5% | 62.8% | 37.2% | |
| Ace Diamonds | 3 | not ender | 25,046 | -1.3 | -2 | -1.4 | 64.3% | 0.6% | 99.4% |
| Ace Diamonds | 4 | ender | 1,162 | -1.2 | 2.2 | 22.0% | 77.0% | 23.0% | |
| Ace Diamonds | 4 | not ender | 4,606 | -0.9 | -0.4 | -1 | 67.8% | 12.6% | 87.4% |
| Ace Diamonds | 5 | ender | 71 | -0.7 | 2.8 | 29.6% | 95.2% | 4.8% | |
| Ace Diamonds | 5 | not ender | 304 | -0.5 | 1.1 | -0.5 | 67.4% | 70.7% | 29.3% |
| Ace Diamonds | 6 | not ender | 3 | -2 | 3 | 66.7% | 100.0% | 0.0% | |
| 10 of Diamonds | 1 | ender | 6,475 | -1.6 | 0.6 | 7.9% | 46.4% | 53.6% | |
| 10 of Diamonds | 1 | not ender | 25,743 | -1.4 | -10.4 | -1.7 | 57.9% | 0.2% | 99.9% |
| 10 of Diamonds | 2 | ender | 9,321 | -1.6 | 1.1 | 11.8% | 53.6% | 46.4% | |
| 10 of Diamonds | 2 | not ender | 37,334 | -1.4 | -2.4 | -1.6 | 61.1% | 0.1% | 99.9% |
| 10 of Diamonds | 3 | ender | 3,670 | -1.5 | 1.4 | 16.9% | 63.7% | 36.3% | |
| 10 of Diamonds | 3 | not ender | 14,980 | -1.3 | -1.6 | -1.4 | 64.3% | 0.5% | 99.5% |
| 10 of Diamonds | 4 | ender | 502 | -1.2 | 2 | 22.9% | 77.4% | 22.6% | |
| 10 of Diamonds | 4 | not ender | 1,936 | -1 | -0.2 | -1.1 | 68.1% | 10.0% | 90.0% |
| 10 of Diamonds | 5 | ender | 7 | -1.3 | 4 | 14.3% | 100.0% | 0.0% | |
| 10 of Diamonds | 5 | not ender | 44 | 0.4 | 2.9 | -0.5 | 68.2% | 60.0% | 40.0% |
| King Diamonds | 1 | ender | 6,628 | -1.6 | 0.3 | 7.6% | 43.9% | 56.1% | |
| King Diamonds | 1 | not ender | 26,378 | -1.3 | -1.8 | -1.6 | 57.4% | 0.2% | 99.8% |
| King Diamonds | 2 | ender | 6,912 | -1.7 | 0.7 | 12.0% | 49.9% | 50.1% | |
| King Diamonds | 2 | not ender | 28,283 | -1.5 | -0.2 | -1.6 | 61.1% | 0.1% | 99.9% |
| King Diamonds | 3 | ender | 1,840 | -1.6 | 1.2 | 17.3% | 62.7% | 37.3% | |
| King Diamonds | 3 | not ender | 7,405 | -1.5 | -4 | -1.5 | 64.7% | 0.2% | 99.8% |
| King Diamonds | 4 | ender | 109 | -1.5 | 1.7 | 17.4% | 78.9% | 21.1% | |
| King Diamonds | 4 | not ender | 482 | -1.4 | -0.5 | -1.3 | 65.8% | 7.6% | 92.4% |
| 9 of Diamonds | 1 | ender | 6,582 | -1.6 | 0.7 | 7.2% | 40.6% | 59.4% | |
| 9 of Diamonds | 1 | not ender | 25,996 | -1.3 | -2.1 | -1.6 | 57.1% | 0.4% | 99.7% |
| 9 of Diamonds | 2 | ender | 4,636 | -1.7 | 0.7 | 11.3% | 50.7% | 49.3% | |
| 9 of Diamonds | 2 | not ender | 19,087 | -1.5 | -2.8 | -1.7 | 60.6% | 0.1% | 99.9% |
| 9 of Diamonds | 3 | ender | 630 | -1.9 | 1.2 | 15.9% | 47.0% | 53.0% | |
| 9 of Diamonds | 3 | not ender | 2,475 | -1.5 | -3 | -1.6 | 64.0% | 0.1% | 99.9% |
| 8 of Diamonds | 1 | ender | 6,601 | -1.6 | 0.4 | 7.2% | 44.7% | 55.3% | |
| 8 of Diamonds | 1 | not ender | 25,896 | -1.3 | -3.1 | -1.7 | 56.7% | 0.2% | 99.8% |
| 8 of Diamonds | 2 | ender | 2,294 | -1.7 | 1 | 12.5% | 50.0% | 50.0% | |
| 8 of Diamonds | 2 | not ender | 9,231 | -1.6 | -10.3 | -1.7 | 60.3% | 0.1% | 99.9% |
| 7 of Diamonds | 1 | ender | 6,552 | -1.6 | 0.6 | 7.1% | 45.7% | 54.3% | |
| 7 of Diamonds | 1 | not ender | 26,290 | -1.4 | -5.8 | -1.6 | 57.6% | 0.2% | 99.8% |
| no trump | 0 | ender | 14,122 | -1.4 | 0.3 | 4.9% | 30.2% | 69.8% | |
| no trump | 0 | not ender | 56,370 | -1.2 | -4.9 | -1.6 | 53.6% | 0.1% | 99.9% |